Potentially very bad, but probably not. Iran has previously vowed to retaliate with full force against any attack, including ‘targeting all US military bases “within our reach”.’ If they launch attacks at Israel that will escalate, but if they make good on that last part it could get very bad very quick.
But right now i have no way to gauge how serious Iran was about those claims or if it intends to make good on them, so the ball’s in their court.
Israel will definitely retaliate (for the strikes that are retaliating against its strikes, it just goes round and round.) The US is moving naval assets into the region so they’re apparently taking the threat seriously. It was a combination of the US, UK, France, Germany, and ~50 other nations that voted to declare Iran in violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty so they likely have a vested interest as well, but Europe isn’t nearly as gung-ho about this sort of thing as the US is so they’re likely to let us take the lead if it goes that far. Iran’s neighbors have been trying to normalize relations with Israel for a while now but Israel doesn’t have puppet strings on them like we have on Israel so they likely won’t get involved either way. This is probably going to stay an Israel-Iran(-US) thing for a bit, but again it depends on how serious Iran wants to take this. I expect their losses in enrichment facilities were something baked into the cost of the program so they’re probably not too stuffed over that, but they’ve lost at least two high-ranking military commanders that I’ve heard of so far and that thing does tend to get them cranky in the pants. I suppose the Houthis in Yemen are kind of a wild-card considering they’re supported at least to some extent by Iran and have no compunction against bloodying Israel’s nose (see all the ships they’ve attacked in the Red Sea recently), but also they’re not likely to be able to accomplish much more than a token effort.
Honestly it’s all speculation at this point. And I’m by no means an expert on geopolitics nor do I have the latest information on the region, so that’s particularly wild-assed and largely-uninformed speculation to boot, so I’m not going to try to lay odds on it. My gut says it will probably just be an exchange of blows and settle down like these things tend to do, but the rhetoric is in high gear so there’s definitely the potential for more trouble coming down the pike.
Be sure to remember that I don’t really know what I’m talking about and any predictions I make are likely to be wildly inaccurate, but otherwise I’m happy to help explain the situation a little bit.
I just mean I have strictly a layperson’s understanding, wanted to make it clear I’m not claiming to have any insider information or any ability to actually predict what’s likely to happen. I just read a lot of news.
Potentially very bad, but probably not. Iran has previously vowed to retaliate with full force against any attack, including ‘targeting all US military bases “within our reach”.’ If they launch attacks at Israel that will escalate, but if they make good on that last part it could get very bad very quick.
But right now i have no way to gauge how serious Iran was about those claims or if it intends to make good on them, so the ball’s in their court.
Edit: I just read that according to Germany’s foreign office Iran is ‘responding with hundreds of drone attacks on Israel.’, so some escalation seems likely.
Thanks mate, realistically how much will other nations intervene?
Israel will definitely retaliate (for the strikes that are retaliating against its strikes, it just goes round and round.) The US is moving naval assets into the region so they’re apparently taking the threat seriously. It was a combination of the US, UK, France, Germany, and ~50 other nations that voted to declare Iran in violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty so they likely have a vested interest as well, but Europe isn’t nearly as gung-ho about this sort of thing as the US is so they’re likely to let us take the lead if it goes that far. Iran’s neighbors have been trying to normalize relations with Israel for a while now but Israel doesn’t have puppet strings on them like we have on Israel so they likely won’t get involved either way. This is probably going to stay an Israel-Iran(-US) thing for a bit, but again it depends on how serious Iran wants to take this. I expect their losses in enrichment facilities were something baked into the cost of the program so they’re probably not too stuffed over that, but they’ve lost at least two high-ranking military commanders that I’ve heard of so far and that thing does tend to get them cranky in the pants. I suppose the Houthis in Yemen are kind of a wild-card considering they’re supported at least to some extent by Iran and have no compunction against bloodying Israel’s nose (see all the ships they’ve attacked in the Red Sea recently), but also they’re not likely to be able to accomplish much more than a token effort.
Honestly it’s all speculation at this point. And I’m by no means an expert on geopolitics nor do I have the latest information on the region, so that’s particularly wild-assed and largely-uninformed speculation to boot, so I’m not going to try to lay odds on it. My gut says it will probably just be an exchange of blows and settle down like these things tend to do, but the rhetoric is in high gear so there’s definitely the potential for more trouble coming down the pike.
Thanks for taking the time to explain that, I’ve got my head round it more now
Be sure to remember that I don’t really know what I’m talking about and any predictions I make are likely to be wildly inaccurate, but otherwise I’m happy to help explain the situation a little bit.
Well you clearly know enough to explain it to the level you have! But yes I understand you’re not an expert
I just mean I have strictly a layperson’s understanding, wanted to make it clear I’m not claiming to have any insider information or any ability to actually predict what’s likely to happen. I just read a lot of news.
Ahhhh I’m with you. You’re really informed and just get it, so it’s been really useful for me