Ehhhh. I mean, I broadly agree that tariffs are not a good idea, and for China, even untargeted tariffs. And end of the day, this is bullshit political theater.

However, it’s not crazy to decouple from China, particularly for a number of important goods. It’s probably not a wildly-unreasonable expectation that economic pressure will be used more in future conflicts than in the past, given the global nature of the economies and the longer supply chains. Like, concerns over that aren’t something that Trump just pulled up.

All that being said, if he actually goes through with this and holds this in place, I think that it’s going to be interesting to see how well the public takes it. These are effectively large consumption taxes. Sure, that’s great if you’re wealthy, because those are regressive, but they’re going to suck if you’re poor, and a major part of the reason that the public voted for Trump was because of upset over inflation under Biden.

So, this is from a couple months back, talking about his earlier tariff packages:

https://www.npr.org/2025/07/15/nx-s1-5467331/trump-tariffs-low-income-households

President Trump has argued that his “America First” trade policy is intended to balance what he feels is an unfair global trade scheme that hurts U.S. workers.

As things stand, there’s a 10% tariff on almost everything the U.S. imports, though there are some exceptions. On goods from China, there’s a 30% tariff rate. Last year, China was the third largest source of imported goods to the U.S.

Tariffs are a kind of tax that hit poorer households more than higher earning ones

Tedeschi said most U.S. taxes, especially federal taxes, are progressive.

“That means that they pinch higher income families more than they do lower income families,” Tedeschi said. “Our income tax is a great example of that. When we run the numbers on tariffs, we find that that’s the opposite.”

According to the Budget Lab’s analysis of Trump’s tariffs, prices would rise by more than 2%. Tedeschi said that could lead to an almost 4% drop in purchasing power of lower-income families, costing them about $1,500 annually.

I mean, you ramp tariffs up, you’re ramping up taxes on the poor. Okay, sure, Trump has worked at framing this as “China paying taxes, not you” or “standing up for America”. But you can’t hide the prices that people wind up paying in stores.

And I’m pretty sure that consumer good prices are — though not obviously linked to taxes — pretty visible, because we look at them a lot. Like why gasoline prices matter a lot, because there are signs with them all over. If you pay a tax at the end of the year, you see a number once. If prices are up, you’re constantly looking at higher price tags.