I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?
I want to check this math and see if the AI is gaslighting me.


Go to school and get a degree in actuarial sciences
This
What you’re asking is either super natural abilities or just learning the science. You can’t just “learn a quick trick” with this