Popular vote does tend to correlate with swing state results as elections are pretty nationalised these days. It’s just too close at the moment to make a prediction either way (and 2016 was too close to call as well, despite the rhetoric at the time).
If she gets to a 10+ national lead I’d start to feel comfortable. Less that that, and it’s a tossup (although a smaller margin starts to become significant closer to the election).
Anyway, vote no matter where you live. If nothing else but to build the habit so it becomes something you don’t have to think about.
Popular vote does tend to correlate with swing state results as elections are pretty nationalised these days. It’s just too close at the moment to make a prediction either way (and 2016 was too close to call as well, despite the rhetoric at the time).
If she gets to a 10+ national lead I’d start to feel comfortable. Less that that, and it’s a tossup (although a smaller margin starts to become significant closer to the election).
Anyway, vote no matter where you live. If nothing else but to build the habit so it becomes something you don’t have to think about.