Most wars in recent history haven’t ended in military defeat, they’ve ended when the attacker has decided the cost of the war is too much to bear, and has gone home.
Both wars in Afghanistan and the Vietnam war are classic examples of this.
And Ukraine is slowly bleeding Russia dry.
It’s not just cost in some cases - look at WWII. Axis was starved of oil, and brought the war machine to a grinding halt.
Tanks run on diesel though. Ukraine is hitting the gasoline refineries and storage.
Tanks are used as glorified personnel carriers since they get blown up by drones upon reaching the front line.
What really matters is the last mile delivery and Russians have used trucks, cars, motorcycles, etc. whatever they had to deliver ammo
Refineries make all types of fuel, it’s kinda how they work.
My understanding is that they’re refined in different parts of the refinery. The drones Ukraine uses don’t carry large payloads; they rely on igniting whatever they hit. Diesel and crude are far less volatile than gasoline, so you’re more likely to cause a big fire by hitting the gasoline-processing part of the refinery. If you throw a match into a puddle of diesel or crude, nothing happens. Refining gasoline is also more complex and sensitive process and thus easier to disrupt. Russia mostly refines gasoline for domestic needs, whereas diesel is kept in much larger storage - so striking gasoline refining capacity has a quicker impact on supply lines and is felt by the common people.
I’ve kinda wondered what even is the end goal for Russia. What do they consider their win condition? Let’s say Ukraine surrenders and submits to Russian control. That’s not the people. That’s just the government. I can see all sorts of guerilla warfare by the people happening then. And from stateless entities, it’ll be even harder to tamp down.
They did it in Chechnya before, just get a “governor” that continues to crush dissent
Russia has a lot of experience in crushing dissent, I’m sure they’ve got a plan there.
They originally wanted to fully conquer Ukraine, I think now they’d settle for the freezing of the front lines.
Don’t think that would be an issue after the government surrenders
At what point does Russia cease being the attacker in Crimea? They’ve had it under their control for 11 years now. It’s on Ukraine to launch an offensive to take it back.
The more time goes on, the more Crimea becomes embedded into the Russian state. According to what I could find, about 76% of Crimeans are ethnic Russians and that has risen since 2014. At this point there’s no evidence that Crimeans would even accept the return of Ukrainian sovereignty.
When Ukraine signs Crimea over. Until then, it’s an illegal occupation
I’m going to shit in your bathroom, claim it for myself, and keep you out until it’s my bathroom
Yeah, because most of the original residents have left, and Russia has brought in a bunch of their own people.
Do you think the ones who identify as Ukrainian would stick around?
That’s the point… There’s barely going to be any Ukrainians left to want to be a part of Ukraine again.
Oh, the actual owners of that land will just move back home. Simple as.
Yes, but that would require Ukrainian forces to actually recapture Crimea militarily. The idea that the Russians will just run away eventually after being “bled out” is a ridiculous one. They’re going nowhere any time soon unless they are dislodged by force.
Goobers like you were once saying Ukraine resisting was futile, and Kyiv would fall in three days.
Ukraine has consistently defied the naysayers, and kept a numerically superior force at bay. We’re now seeing them reach far behind enemy lines and wreck Russian infrastructure, and the cracks are slowly starting to show.
I absolutely believe they can win this.
I never said anything of the sort but sure. Goobers like you have been saying the cracks are showing for the past 3 years, so I’m just waiting to see this big collapse that is supposed to happen.
Ukraine has had its own infrastructure wrecked over the course of the war, so that doesn’t just apply to Russia. Everything is finite and it’s not like Ukraine is the only side being supplied by it’s allies.
A lot of people do believe Ukraine can win, but it’s about time the west got serious and gave Ukraine the tools they need to take decisive action soon. In the years since the 2014 crisis, we’ve seen the emergence of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics in Donbas backed by Russia. The more Russians that move there, the more there will be resistance to any idea of Kyiv governance in the future. You can’t control a territory without the consent of the people who live there.
Russians left Kherson after bleeding too much and no being able to resupply
It’s Russia’s fault. If they didn’t want Ukrainians to blow them up, they could, you know, not have oil tanks.
Or get the fuck out of Ukraine.
Fuck yeah!
Damn, now THAT’S a fire!
