The top 9 companies are tech companies, mostly AI slop (with the possible exception of Broadcom). Those top 9 companies are over 1/3 of the market cap of the S&P. And that doesn’t even count the AI slop companies that are smaller.
When AI crashes, it will give the S&P a 25% haircut… (But don’t necessarily sell! For all I know, it will all double before it takes that haircut.)
None of said companies are exclusively AI companies though. They were profitable companies with established products and services already before the AI boom. That doesn’t mean they’re not potentially overvalued but it also doesn’t mean that market crash makes them go to zero.
Yes, they are all profitable companies with established products. But that part of their business is just a part of their valuation. AI slop is the rest. NVidia is trading at a P/E ratio of over 50. Do you think they can sustain that once people stop buying AI chips?
And those are just the largest companies. There are smaller companies it’s riding the AI bubble which will simply cease to exist soon (along with all the investment in them.)
The NASDAQ dropped something insane, like 80%, when the dotcom bubble crashed. The S&P is different and more diversified, so it won’t crash so hard, but I think 25% is as good a guess as any.
Take a look at the S&P 500, by weight.
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500
The top 9 companies are tech companies, mostly AI slop (with the possible exception of Broadcom). Those top 9 companies are over 1/3 of the market cap of the S&P. And that doesn’t even count the AI slop companies that are smaller.
When AI crashes, it will give the S&P a 25% haircut… (But don’t necessarily sell! For all I know, it will all double before it takes that haircut.)
None of said companies are exclusively AI companies though. They were profitable companies with established products and services already before the AI boom. That doesn’t mean they’re not potentially overvalued but it also doesn’t mean that market crash makes them go to zero.
Yes, they are all profitable companies with established products. But that part of their business is just a part of their valuation. AI slop is the rest. NVidia is trading at a P/E ratio of over 50. Do you think they can sustain that once people stop buying AI chips?
And those are just the largest companies. There are smaller companies it’s riding the AI bubble which will simply cease to exist soon (along with all the investment in them.)
The NASDAQ dropped something insane, like 80%, when the dotcom bubble crashed. The S&P is different and more diversified, so it won’t crash so hard, but I think 25% is as good a guess as any.