Do you see a specific part of the economy that has a clear growth potetial? Prior to AI there was green energy and EVs but Trump kneecapped that. Tech has been shedding people for a while and transformed into AI. I’m curious if I’m missing something obvious that wouild grow if given the capital.
BTW I think AI is not only sucking out the oxygen in terms of capital. It’s also depriving the rest of the economy of certainty and predictability (confidence). Employees are wondering whether AI would lay them off. Employers are wondering how many people they’d be able to lay off. Both classes are waiting on the ambiguity to be resolved by AI as that would have significant implications on their spending plans. Until then, I think they’re likely underspending due to that uncertainty. That’s of course without considering all the other uncertainty. 😅
Been saying for nearly 20-years that green energy initiatives are a no brainer for America, even if you don’t believe in global warming. New jobs, new tech to sell internally and externally, the US could have led the way and hiked our economy and world leader status.
Yeah, green energy and batteries and electric vehicles and the like are the future, even if the regime is trying to stop the march of history by ending all the government incentives and canceling projects and doing trade wars against China’s green tech industry. There’s no where else for the capital to go. Trump can stand in front of the avalanche and scream “STOP!” all he wants, he might be run over by the sheer momentum that’s building right now once the AI bubble stops parasitically feeding on the real economy.
Probably not, though.
I mostly expect the US to enter a Lost Decade of low growth+high inflation, and for China to inherit the world economy.
I mostly expect the US to enter a Lost Decade of low growth+high inflation, and for China to inherit the world economy.
Sounds about right. I think our Canadian economic managers, as neolib as they are, are preparing to respond with various public spending on infrastructure, housing, green tech, mining and processing, and military. I think it’s likely to be at least somewhat competent. That said given our massive exposure to the US market I’m still afraid for what savings I have.
It’s the opposite. The non-AI economy is in recession because the AI bubble is sucking the oxygen out of the rest of the market.
Which actually presents a possible upside to the bubble bursting: maybe the rest of the economy will actually recover.
Probably not. But maybe!
Do you see a specific part of the economy that has a clear growth potetial? Prior to AI there was green energy and EVs but Trump kneecapped that. Tech has been shedding people for a while and transformed into AI. I’m curious if I’m missing something obvious that wouild grow if given the capital.
BTW I think AI is not only sucking out the oxygen in terms of capital. It’s also depriving the rest of the economy of certainty and predictability (confidence). Employees are wondering whether AI would lay them off. Employers are wondering how many people they’d be able to lay off. Both classes are waiting on the ambiguity to be resolved by AI as that would have significant implications on their spending plans. Until then, I think they’re likely underspending due to that uncertainty. That’s of course without considering all the other uncertainty. 😅
Been saying for nearly 20-years that green energy initiatives are a no brainer for America, even if you don’t believe in global warming. New jobs, new tech to sell internally and externally, the US could have led the way and hiked our economy and world leader status.
But think of all the poor coal miners and oil drillers that will lose their jobs if the US switches to renewables :(
Yeah, green energy and batteries and electric vehicles and the like are the future, even if the regime is trying to stop the march of history by ending all the government incentives and canceling projects and doing trade wars against China’s green tech industry. There’s no where else for the capital to go. Trump can stand in front of the avalanche and scream “STOP!” all he wants, he might be run over by the sheer momentum that’s building right now once the AI bubble stops parasitically feeding on the real economy.
Probably not, though.
I mostly expect the US to enter a Lost Decade of low growth+high inflation, and for China to inherit the world economy.
Sounds about right. I think our Canadian economic managers, as neolib as they are, are preparing to respond with various public spending on infrastructure, housing, green tech, mining and processing, and military. I think it’s likely to be at least somewhat competent. That said given our massive exposure to the US market I’m still afraid for what savings I have.