cyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 3 days agoNate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.netexternal-linkmessage-square73fedilinkarrow-up1118arrow-down128
arrow-up190arrow-down1external-linkNate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.netcyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 3 days agomessage-square73fedilink
minus-squareObjectivityIncarnate@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up19arrow-down5·3 days agoThis is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias. Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn’t stop being a bad idea if you win the $2 after 1 bet.
minus-squareRapidcreek@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up4arrow-down16·3 days agoNothing like one person being right and another being wrong in bringing the amateur philosophers out.
minus-squarebutwhyishischinabook@lemmy.worldcakelinkfedilinkarrow-up6arrow-down1·2 days agoTell me you don’t understand directionally or literal numbers without telling me…
minus-squareRapidcreek@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up1arrow-down5·2 days agoTell me you don’t know simple English without telling me…
This is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias.
Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn’t stop being a bad idea if you win the $2 after 1 bet.
Nothing like one person being right and another being wrong in bringing the amateur philosophers out.
Tell me you don’t understand directionally or literal numbers without telling me…
Tell me you don’t know simple English without telling me…