What the rest of the world is mainly doing is jockeying for position while watching America rapidly lose global reserve currency status.
It is happening far more quickly than I think the vast majority of people without privileged information imagined. Trump wants a weakened dollar and is getting it. No one wants this to happen overnight; the instability this process is allowing and will cause is risky enough. Everyone wants to avoid simmering global conflict erupting into WW3. Well maybe Putin is up for it, I don’t know. The US is a belligerent ally, and has the biggest military in the world so it is about treading lightly and hopefully preparing.
It is about minimising risk, eating shit giving in to Trump’s pathetic demands for fealty, while preparing for the new economic order to emerge. America cannot pay its military without everyone trusting it enough to buy its debt. America cannot pay its debts without its military supporting the dollar. So it is a tricky unwinding of decades of geo-political norms. The world cannot wait to see who America votes for every four years for global stability, so it is done. It is clear to me that very few Americans I came into contact with online ever appreciated this balancing act, or how important their vast military spending was to their country’s wealth post ww2.
I feel bad for the average non-Trump voting American because as a Brit I can tell you that there is always resentment that plays out once a country loses that reserve currency status. A people can make a mistake, but a second Trump vote is unforgivable. It is America throwing itself off a cliff economically, over the longer term. Billionaires are clearly getting stuck into filling their boots - this collapse is going to make some people very rich.
As a Trump-hating American working in defense, I always tried to tell people that our economic dominance was enforced with the barrel of a gun. Friends working in international relations would also reference books like “Confessions of an Economic Hitman” that also pointed to usage of the CIA and international lending terms to enrich ourselves at the expanse of the 3rd world, especially Latin America. I completely agree that a capricious, bi-polar US is an untenable world leader.
But in general, it’s very hard to get most Americans to care about our relationships and interactions with the rest of the world, much less acknowledge the ways we are dependent on it. There is some US-centric vanity involved, as well as some stubborn ignorance due to never interacting with the rest of the world at all. But I think in part it’s also due to the hyper competitive nature of simply trying to live in the US, such that there is no brainspace for anything not directly affecting you. Stressors include corporate expectations that everyone should live to work, so many people a few paychecks away from losing their homes and lifestyle with no social safety net, the struggle to afford to live in areas with good schools for your kids, etc etc. In some ways, I’m hopeful that losing global pre-eminence could make life easier for us, especially if it brings about government reform (I don’t mean the MAGA version of this, obviously).
China, the obvious successor to American influence, assuming a more commanding role on the world stage is a mixed bag. On one hand, they certainly prize stability above almost everything, and an authoritarian state run by technocrats indeed seems more effective at addressing climate change than a Corporatocracy that profits from destroying the planet. On the other, there’s not even acknowledgement of unethical practices (e.g.: labor conditions in Chinese companies in DRC, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) when there is no free press. As the US spread it’s influence and democracy after WWII, I kind of worry that the entire world may be forced to get in line with the CCP.
What the rest of the world is mainly doing is jockeying for position while watching America rapidly lose global reserve currency status.
It is happening far more quickly than I think the vast majority of people without privileged information imagined. Trump wants a weakened dollar and is getting it. No one wants this to happen overnight; the instability this process is allowing and will cause is risky enough. Everyone wants to avoid simmering global conflict erupting into WW3. Well maybe Putin is up for it, I don’t know. The US is a belligerent ally, and has the biggest military in the world so it is about treading lightly and hopefully preparing.
It is about minimising risk, eating shit giving in to Trump’s pathetic demands for fealty, while preparing for the new economic order to emerge. America cannot pay its military without everyone trusting it enough to buy its debt. America cannot pay its debts without its military supporting the dollar. So it is a tricky unwinding of decades of geo-political norms. The world cannot wait to see who America votes for every four years for global stability, so it is done. It is clear to me that very few Americans I came into contact with online ever appreciated this balancing act, or how important their vast military spending was to their country’s wealth post ww2.
I feel bad for the average non-Trump voting American because as a Brit I can tell you that there is always resentment that plays out once a country loses that reserve currency status. A people can make a mistake, but a second Trump vote is unforgivable. It is America throwing itself off a cliff economically, over the longer term. Billionaires are clearly getting stuck into filling their boots - this collapse is going to make some people very rich.
As a Trump-hating American working in defense, I always tried to tell people that our economic dominance was enforced with the barrel of a gun. Friends working in international relations would also reference books like “Confessions of an Economic Hitman” that also pointed to usage of the CIA and international lending terms to enrich ourselves at the expanse of the 3rd world, especially Latin America. I completely agree that a capricious, bi-polar US is an untenable world leader.
But in general, it’s very hard to get most Americans to care about our relationships and interactions with the rest of the world, much less acknowledge the ways we are dependent on it. There is some US-centric vanity involved, as well as some stubborn ignorance due to never interacting with the rest of the world at all. But I think in part it’s also due to the hyper competitive nature of simply trying to live in the US, such that there is no brainspace for anything not directly affecting you. Stressors include corporate expectations that everyone should live to work, so many people a few paychecks away from losing their homes and lifestyle with no social safety net, the struggle to afford to live in areas with good schools for your kids, etc etc. In some ways, I’m hopeful that losing global pre-eminence could make life easier for us, especially if it brings about government reform (I don’t mean the MAGA version of this, obviously).
China, the obvious successor to American influence, assuming a more commanding role on the world stage is a mixed bag. On one hand, they certainly prize stability above almost everything, and an authoritarian state run by technocrats indeed seems more effective at addressing climate change than a Corporatocracy that profits from destroying the planet. On the other, there’s not even acknowledgement of unethical practices (e.g.: labor conditions in Chinese companies in DRC, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) when there is no free press. As the US spread it’s influence and democracy after WWII, I kind of worry that the entire world may be forced to get in line with the CCP.