- NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
- Wine-Wayland last 4/5 parts left to be merged before end of 2024
- Wayland HDR/Game color protocol will be finished before end of 2024
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
- KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability with NO FKN ADS
- VR being usable
- More Wine development and more Games being ported
- Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
- Windows 10 coming to EOL
- Improved Linux simplicity and support
- Web-native apps (Including Msft Office and Adobe)
- .Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
What else am I missing?
What else am I missing?
The fact that 90% of people don’t give a shit about ads, privacy or their operating system in general. They want a machine to open a browser, that’s it. If Windows comes pre-installed, they’ll use Windows.
The only realistic chance we’ve got is that MS shoots itself in the foot once more by all that Recall crap and businesses drop Windows. But that’s a long shot.
Business versions of Windows either won’t have recall or the domain controllers will be able to enforce a rule against it.
Right! Sadly…😭
I find most people don’t know of the alternatives but they are open to change as they are unhappy with current options that they are aware of. I’ve talked with a few people that were surprisingly open to to trying Linux. They didn’t know how easy it is to use and install but jumped on the opportunity as they were unhappy with Windows.
Until something breaks, or doesn’t have a GUI. The average user seeing a terminal means they will abandon it. And even if they are willing to handle a terminal to fix an issue, the toxic community members that flock to be the first to respond condescendingly to new users will turn them away permanently.
Linux communities have some of the most helpful users, but they also have people worse than a League of Legends game. And all it takes is one of them to turn the average person away forever.
… And then something happens and they want you to install Windows again.
As much as I like Linux, compared to Windows and Mac OS it’s high maintenance. Once in a while, things will bork themselves. And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what’s happening to fix it.
Also (and that’s not a Linux problem per se) people seem to think if Windows breaks, MS or they themselves are at fault, if Linux breaks, that weird nerd and his hacker stuff are at fault.
I have to disagree, at least in my experience.
Windows causes more problems, both for my mum and myself.Her only purpose of a PC is basically to open a web browser, answer some mails and plug in a USB from time to time. For her, Mint never made one single problem, except when the hard drive failed.
She really liked the “boringness” and the old Windows charme.And for me, Linux never made any big troubles in general. When I used Tumbleweed, there were a few papercuts (e.g. graphical glitches, program freezes, etc.) due to the bleeding edge, but nothing major.
And since I use Fedora Atomic, I completely forget that I use an OS in general. I never have to update anything, I can’t break my stuff, etc…
It’s the most “boring” and user friendly OS I’ve used, even more than MacOS and Windows. Only Android/ iOS are better in that regard.But I’ve never seen my OS just borking itself. If that should ever happen, I can easily roll back in a second and it will work again.
And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what’s happening to fix it.
If you can fix Windows (which made way more problems after updates for me) then fixing Linux is way easier. And if you’re an average person, then you go to a local repair shop and say “My PC broke” and they reinstall Windows for you.
Without fail, every Linux installation I had destroyed itself after a while.
Be it a full boot partition, some weird driver compatibility, etc, etc.
My Windows installations (granted, all work laptops) never destroyed themselves. Yes, some bugs here and there, but it worked well enough for home usage. You can’t discount that.
Without fail, every Linux installation I had destroyed itself after a while.
User-induced trauma, poor distros.
The fact those poor distros exist means yet another hurdle for the average user to switch to Linux
I’ve got the complete opposite to you. I’m in a household of 3 gaming desktops and 3 laptops, plus family who need help. I’ve been daily driving Linux for about a decade now and keep duel boot around just for Adobe products.
On all these machines, Linux hs been rock solid and never had issues that wasn’t user caused. Windows on the other hand drives me crazy with how much it fucks out. I have next to no control over it. It updates when it wants. I have no control over what’s updated. I hate the gods damn ads (and that’s on Windows 10) despite running de-crappifying software. I hate how many errors it has and how long it takes t troubleshoot them. I hate that if the system borks itself enough, it’s faster and less insanity inducing to just reinstall the whole os than try and fix it. I hate that Windows just gets progressively slower and laggier over time whereas my 6 year running Arch install was as fast as the day I installed it.
Okay, but understand that from for example my point of view, your perception appears really skewed because my GNU/Linux installations have never “destroyed [themselves] after a while”. Respectfully, I think that you project your Linux failures unto the entire ecosystem, based on issues that were unique to you.
Changing to Linux means, people…:
- need to have an understanding of operating systems, so they can think about alternatives
- need to be aware of the actual alternative
- need to be willing to learn something new
- need to be willing to leave some applications or games behind
- need to choose a Linux distribution
- need the technical ability and understanding to actually download, flash and boot from boot system, install it and setup initial, such as root password and such
These are basic and trivial stuff for us, but most normies don’t have this understanding and interest to go this far. And then it depends if they are happy and stay. Even if every PC manufacturer and distributor would offere the same PC with Windows and Linux, most would just choose Windows (probably). This is the current reality.
Such a hard agree. My wife won’t even let me install Linux, which takes out the more technical aspects of the above.
She’s just comfortable on Windows. Most people don’t want to learn something new and even fewer actually care about privacy.
Edit: Us Linux users assume that if Windows gets bad enough people will switch to Linux, when we all should face facts that normies will much sooner switch to Mac.
that normies will much sooner switch to Mac.
Rich normies.
Sure, for the mac pro line with specs that us nerds care about.
I think some of those M1 mac airs are really affordable now though. For casual use it would be a good device for a tech illiterate person.
Or a mini.
I have an M2 mini I use for iOS builds, cheap enough for me to buy and stick in the rack to use for remote builds. I got that a year ago for $600ish iirc.
Yeah man. Apple still screws people when it comes to ram and storage options of course, but the base products are actually pretty good for the money.
Mostly yes but there’s one other option that simplifies the whole thing: Chromebooks. They’re actually pretty decent for someone who doesn’t need much beyond a browser, a mail client, and a basic office suite.
Sure, they’re tied to Google with all that entails but they can be a real option for someone like a senior who relies on relatives for tech support.
Something I’ve never checked for but…are there any linux installers that run from within windows? Shrink the windows partition, create a linux partition, populate it, install grub, and tell the user to reboot and choose linux? I think general lack of good ext4 fs support in windows might make things difficult, but you don’t actually need to do that part from within windows. There could be a second installer that’s triggered the first time they boot from grub.
I feel like a well supported installer like that would dramatically lower the barrier to entry. It could make dual booting windows a breeze for anyone who knows how to run an installer and reboot, which is what people actually want.
Q4OS has an installer like that, but you have to change the boot order after installation, I don’t think it uses grub.
This sounds awesome idea. Not sure if there is a technical reason why this could not be done. On the other hand, Windows already has WSL (Windows Subsystem for Linux, is it still called like that?). All antivirus programs would probably go nuts. Windows itself is a restricted system and some things need to be done before booting into Windows. I assume if it was possible, then this would have been done before. At least I never heard about this. The best way is to have a preinstalled Linux on hardware.
It’s true. I only use applications. The OS is a thing in the background that needs to get setup fast so I click an application and now I’m using my computer. I spend more time in my BIOS than I do the back of my OS.
Whichever OS does that best will always be the most popular.
Yes, but there are things that absolutely drove be crazy in Windows. When you switch to Korean, it would default to Latin characters, and you have to switch to Korean characters. Which is fine if you always use the Korean layout and just toggle between Latin and Korean characters, like most Koreans.
But I am actually learning Korean and I speak more than one other language. When I switch to Chinese I expect it to type in Chinese. When I switch to Korean, I expect it to type in Korean.
The most bullshit thing about Windows is if the default behavior doesn’t suit you, there’s no way to change it. You’re stuck with how Windows works because it’s batteries included.
Businesses that already use Windows with all of the heavily integrated business-related stuff from Microsoft (AD, Exchange, SharePoint, Teams, Outlook, etc.) won’t change that just because a feature that most likely can be disabled via GPO.
Then people move to Mac.
Most of the points listed here don’t matter a hoot to the average user.
True.
The only thing the average consumer will even notice is the end of support for Windows 10. However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click “yes” and forget about it. They might be a little annoyed by the changes, but that will be all.
Nobody will notice end of support for Windows 10. Why would they? Nobody noticed end of support for Windows 7, either, and it’s still up and running in many places where it really shouldn’t.
End users don’t give a crap about security updates and as long as users don’t bump into a lack of third party driver they won’t even notice a difference. And yeah, like every other time they will eventually update to the current version once more practical issues crop up. 10 to 11 isn’t even close to the harshest upgrade path MS has deployed.
However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click “yes” and
be informed that their computer does not support Win11
and forget about it.
That’s slowly changing though, as the enschittification of windows continues. They may not care to know about the details, but all of those points do fall under the “it just works” catagory. And they do care about that.
I agree. However if you look through the other comments in here, you’ll see a LOT more examples of stuff that fall into the “it just doesn’t work” category instead. And most of them are a lot more obvious to casual / new users. Those would be the ones that really require priority if Linux is ever to become mainstream.
wellp, most of these didn’t happen, next year is looking extremely promising though.
You are missing the “GNU slash”,
GNU/Linux dethrones Windows
BusyBox/Linux dethrones ur dad
Let me interject for a moment …
Why? There a non gnu linux distros
It’s called “Android”.
Well that is one yes. There are more than just one
I think it’s going to take a Microsoft catastrophe, something that disables machines for at least a few days. I’m thinking maybe a buggy windows update.
Meanwhile total recall happening with AI+Copilot
Or a forced update to windows 11 on machine that doesn’t support it. That would break the windows install for good. Either they will find a way to install windows again or take it to somebody who installs windows on it again. Maybe maybe they’ll find out about Linux.
Dethrones? No. Not in the sense it will overtake Windows in numbers.
Grows its gamer ‘market share’? Absolutely.
Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
Was there any recent relevant developments in this area?
Skimming though the LibreOffice 24.2 release notes, this was the first thing I’ve encountered:
New line break algorithm for interoperability
Since 2013, the non-proprietary, metric-compatible alternative fonts are no longer guaranteed the same paragraph layout, because MS Word 2013 and later introduced a new default line breaking algorithm for justified text. To fix the lost interoperability, the same algorithm has been implemented in Writer to reduce spaces within justified lines by up to 20%. tdf#119908 blog post (László Németh, donor: NLnet).
And in 24.8:
Fixed an issue with shape positioning in DOCX import for RTL paragraphs (Miklos Vajna, Collabora) tdf#160833
As it is nice opening a document and having the line breaks and figures at the intended placed, it can be concluded that there is noticeably development going on for compatibility between LO Writer and MS Word.
THE YEAR OF LINUX IN THE DESKTOP!
It’s like Lucy and the football.
Who is Lucy?
- Windows 11 getting Copilot+ Recall
And a shit-ton of ads.
And the kitchen sink
Oh wait that’s the next KDE release
Office and Adobe Web native apps? What sources do you have?
But there’s also the Google Office Suite as another online office suite in addition to Office 365
You know that’s not what “native” means, right?
Web native.
Most people don’t care. And that says someone who replaced his Windows XP when Vista was the newest shit on the market (I also had a Vista laptop back then). With every Windows version people argued and posted about The Year of Linux Desktop. If you are talking about number of users, then Linux on Desktop will not dethrone Windows in 2024. Most people don’t care or the switch is painful in many ways. Don’t get your hopes too high. My following argumentation is critical, but I am a Linux fanboy. Have that in mind.
KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability
What exactly do you mean by that? KDE and Gnome reached usability long time ago. However thanks to Wayland the stability got a huge hit, plus KDE was always a bit wonky in regard that. But otherwise these are great desktops with good usability for a long time now. Way better than what Apple or Windows has to offer.
Windows 10 coming to EOL
This has never mattered. Most people just switch or buy next Windows version.
.Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
This is not new in 2024, or did something happen here?
Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
Better than what? Than the previous version? This is always the case and people don’t switch from Windows to Linux because of that. After all, the application is available on Windows too.
… will be … before end of 2024 …
Will be remain to be seen if this is true. If there is one thing I learned is, don’t trust estimation when software will be finished.
NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
This has no impact on Proton, but Wine as far as I understand. Proton already has an alternative that is similar to NTSync. So from performance standpoint, it has no impact on Steam games.
Windows 10 coming to EOL
This has never mattered. Most people just switch or buy next Windows version.
Or keep on using Windows 10 and are happy not to be annoyed by updates any more.
Dethrone? Probably not.
Start taking up a noticeable share of the demographic of systems? Probably
Before this year is out I’m switching my systems to Linux and before Windows 10 EoL I’m having to switch some relatives to Linux because their systems can’t handle Windows 11 and I’m not going to buy them new systems.
Full of optimism. But why those points that relate not in the slightest to the layman? Also sources for half of your points?
Not even one of those points will accelerate Linux adoption to being with a decade of the snowballing level at which point it could Dethrone Windows.
You been drinking some absinthe or smoking the ganja-weed?
Or just straight up snorting Flakka
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
God I really hope that’ll be true.
