It’s a balancing act. To maximize likely seats won, they need to accurately predict who will vote on that election, which is difficult.
Small predicted margins of victory now could evaporate and result in Democrats winning.
Yep, this is the thing people often forget about gerrymandering. The entire point is to take a large margin of victory in an area, and use it to offset your opponents margin in another area, usually by carving into your opponents margin with several of your own.
The more gerrymandered a set of districts is, the more likely they are to be tipped by an unexpected change of turn out by a given group.
One group gets complacent (my vote doesn’t matter in this state, since my party always wins!) or one group gets fired up… And suddenly the story flips.
They didn’t need to be told. Frankly, I’m surprised Texas has room to be gerrymandered even more.
It’s a balancing act. To maximize likely seats won, they need to accurately predict who will vote on that election, which is difficult. Small predicted margins of victory now could evaporate and result in Democrats winning.
Yep, this is the thing people often forget about gerrymandering. The entire point is to take a large margin of victory in an area, and use it to offset your opponents margin in another area, usually by carving into your opponents margin with several of your own.
The more gerrymandered a set of districts is, the more likely they are to be tipped by an unexpected change of turn out by a given group.
One group gets complacent (my vote doesn’t matter in this state, since my party always wins!) or one group gets fired up… And suddenly the story flips.
Gerrymandered? You mean Donnytrumpered?