Worth noting, midterm swings in the house almost always goes against the sitting president’s party by a lot. 2022 was a history low (-9). I think the expectation is for the swing to be much higher.

https://history.house.gov/Institution/Majority-Changes/Majority-Changes/

Edit: better link

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections