And I’m sure the money will be so useful it if you win your bet in the end on climate collapse by 2030.
🤣 this is so dystopian and these betting sites have crazy conflicts of interest. I hate the human world more and more with each passing day. I’ll stick to my nature thank you.
It’s wild that this site has full CFTC certification since 2020. Like the only things they were restricted on betting was terrorism, war, and gaming.
Apparently everything else isn’t a conflict to the government if it makes poor people give up their money to the wealthy.gaming
that seems so out of place its kind of hilarious
Every post of this ad is just free advertising for them
I would hope the lemmy user base would be capable of telling its users that this is a terrible gambling site.
Plus they already have over 2 million users. It exists without me mentioning its name. The best i can do is call it dumb publicly.
I would just assume the regular Lemmy-joe to be intellectually capable to already know. I mean, they’re obviously not here for the gigaquad of funny memes 😊
Some boomer told me Trump wants the shutdown to be 47 days because he’s the 47th president. It’s terrible, but I could see it.
An argument I’ve heard for allowing this is, at least it means the public will have more reliable advance information, since insiders are incentivized to bet on what they know will happen in order to take everyone else’s money, which effectively leaks the info and happens before that information gets into the news.
Well depends on the definition of public… When Peter Thiel invests heavily in a platform like polymarket all it does is tell him if his political power is showing. Everything else is breadcrumbs we are allowed to see…
Much like with similar markets, robinhood comes to mind, I suspect this is of similar cloth (hugely profitable to the insiders, sometimes profitable to the outsiders and the public ““findings”” get massaged by their marketing department.
I’m not sure what you mean, in this case the definition of public would be anyone who can see the state of the market (everyone), and so can see when insider trading visibly moves the price. The idea being that doing the insider trading unavoidably leaks the information in this way, they can’t hide it unless they can manage to actually prevent all insiders from substantially trading on their inside knowledge.
Yeah my comment is meandering a bit. Maybe a more succinct way would be to say: this so called market is a private firm and it’s in their own interest to not divulge the whole picture.
You’re absolutely right about complex systems always leaking info through unintended sidechannels, but I would argue that is information not available to everyone on the “market” at the same time, thus skewing the market (and again benefitting the owners of the market more than anyone).
it’s in their own interest to not divulge the whole picture.
Could you give an example? Do you mean they will fail to report or falsify the real prices, or something else? I’ll admit I like the idea of more decentralized betting markets (wish Augur had gotten big instead of platforms like Polymarket), but something that egregious seems like it would be tough to get away with without people noticing.
A couple politics will place a bet as soon they know before the public does.
If so, you can use the market to get early notification. Your payout should not get smaller by more people entering the market (YES shares when it’s at 99% probability are worth less than YES shares at 50%)
I feel better about betting on political events than the stock market. At least the events are real, no?
The probabilities actually mean something eventually, while the stock value is never grounded (until it is $0).
Are we all going to burn to death or not? Place your bets, gentlemen!
Latest South Park episode covered this type of “business” pretty well.
Oof, which country’s government is collapsing this week?
I feel like Marx must’ve predicted this
