Not wrong. At “best,” we’ll see a fracturing of the military…which could be much more trouble than it’s worth. I’d expect a small wave of resignations/desertions (since resignation for an officer takes a long time). The remainder of good people will actively try to avoid and sea-lawyer their way out of doing any damage to civilians without violating orders. There will be a good chunk who will happily fire on US civilians, though.
Yep, but those who resign for moral reasons will be more likely to take actual actions to protest/stop what’s happening. The military will have a hard time recruiting competent people in that environment, though, and the people taking the vacancies will likely have diminishing competence as time goes on.
To put it in perspective, if more officers retire at 20, they’ll generally be O-5s (Lieutenant Colonels or Commanders), and so the next year’s promotion cycle will need to promote more O-4s to cover the vacancies. This will then trickle down, and suddenly, you have officers who have been O-3s for just a couple of years being promoted to O-4 rather than waiting longer and gaining experience.
In that scenario, there will be less efficiency in planning and execution and far more incompetence, and if being used against civilians, more brutality. But incompetence is easier to defeat in the long run. Seeing the incompetence and brutality will deprive the military of the smartest recruits who staff the important IT, intelligence, cyber, etc. communities. So, while they may get true believers, a lower proportion will be competent.
No matter how it shakes out, it will get very bad.
That isn’t a winning strategy when your ousted minority officers are not just competent, but also become opposed to your actions. The Trump Regime hurt minority soldiers, and those troops will ally with whoever resists the Trump Regime.
An veteran military almost always will beat a green one, many times demonstrated throughout history.
Yep, but those who resign for moral reasons will be more likely to take actual actions to protest/stop what’s happening
No. They won’t. Or, to be more blunt, the people who would actually be useful won’t. Because they are the ones who understand the world isn’t Call of Duty and a single guy with a pistol isn’t actually going to Jack Bauer his way through an entire armed escort.
The military will have a hard time recruiting competent people
They already do. That is why the military is dumb as a door knob and full of the kind of people who just want an excuse to shoot some folk whether they are brown or not.
This will then trickle down, and suddenly, you have officers who have been O-3s for just a couple of years being promoted to O-4 rather than waiting longer and gaining experience.
We convince officers and other respected leaders to coup at the right time at the right signal.
But we also accept that the Grunts and dumbasses are gonna dumbass. Maybe you can get like an E-8 or E-9 on our side but don’t give much effort to E-3 or E-5.
But sitting around hoping that the military just magically appears on our side (that leans hard into Libertarianism at best and outright far right hooo rah at worst) is dumb.
I’m addressing an instance of doomerism. Participation of current or former military in the rebellion occupies my thoughts far less than that, currently.
We shouldn’t expect a military coup on this issue. The vast majority of soldiers will take the side of Police and ICE on this issue and proudly stand by them.
Doomerism here allows us to focus our efforts elsewhere, where it’d be more fruitful to strike back vs Trump.
You’re describing pragmatism, a solutions-oriented mindset.
I’m referring to left’s problem with edgy despair evangelists suffering from a deliberately propagated fascist contagion that must be recognized and treated rather than allowed to spread.
Why? Because it deactivates would-be activists (including, for example, voters who had the chance to prevent this fascist takeover). It is not harmless. It must be addressed.
It is not even that they “will” take the side of fascism. They already have at every step of the way.
We can sit thinking warm and cheery thoughts. Or we can think about what it will mean to survive for people who aren’t privileged enough to be a cishet white guy without any history of giving a shit about other human beings.
Not wrong. At “best,” we’ll see a fracturing of the military…which could be much more trouble than it’s worth. I’d expect a small wave of resignations/desertions (since resignation for an officer takes a long time). The remainder of good people will actively try to avoid and sea-lawyer their way out of doing any damage to civilians without violating orders. There will be a good chunk who will happily fire on US civilians, though.
Resignations are only useful in the short term.
In the long term, Resignations provide new opportunities for the loyal to gain power and recruit.
Yep, but those who resign for moral reasons will be more likely to take actual actions to protest/stop what’s happening. The military will have a hard time recruiting competent people in that environment, though, and the people taking the vacancies will likely have diminishing competence as time goes on.
To put it in perspective, if more officers retire at 20, they’ll generally be O-5s (Lieutenant Colonels or Commanders), and so the next year’s promotion cycle will need to promote more O-4s to cover the vacancies. This will then trickle down, and suddenly, you have officers who have been O-3s for just a couple of years being promoted to O-4 rather than waiting longer and gaining experience.
In that scenario, there will be less efficiency in planning and execution and far more incompetence, and if being used against civilians, more brutality. But incompetence is easier to defeat in the long run. Seeing the incompetence and brutality will deprive the military of the smartest recruits who staff the important IT, intelligence, cyber, etc. communities. So, while they may get true believers, a lower proportion will be competent.
No matter how it shakes out, it will get very bad.
They don’t need competent people. They only need obedient cannon fodder.
That isn’t a winning strategy when your ousted minority officers are not just competent, but also become opposed to your actions. The Trump Regime hurt minority soldiers, and those troops will ally with whoever resists the Trump Regime.
An veteran military almost always will beat a green one, many times demonstrated throughout history.
I didn’t say it was a good plan…
No. They won’t. Or, to be more blunt, the people who would actually be useful won’t. Because they are the ones who understand the world isn’t Call of Duty and a single guy with a pistol isn’t actually going to Jack Bauer his way through an entire armed escort.
They already do. That is why the military is dumb as a door knob and full of the kind of people who just want an excuse to shoot some folk whether they are brown or not.
Oh, well then. That will solve everything.
The ASVAB was pretty basic when I took it. Fortunately, a health condition at the time kept me from basic.
Breathe. We will get through this, and how is a question worth considering, as the commenter above was doing before your sweaty takedown.
If you need to share this burden of despair with someone, my DMs are open. Spreading it among comrades is not OK.
We convince officers and other respected leaders to coup at the right time at the right signal.
But we also accept that the Grunts and dumbasses are gonna dumbass. Maybe you can get like an E-8 or E-9 on our side but don’t give much effort to E-3 or E-5.
But sitting around hoping that the military just magically appears on our side (that leans hard into Libertarianism at best and outright far right hooo rah at worst) is dumb.
I’m addressing an instance of doomerism. Participation of current or former military in the rebellion occupies my thoughts far less than that, currently.
Doomerism on the correct contexts is correct.
We shouldn’t expect a military coup on this issue. The vast majority of soldiers will take the side of Police and ICE on this issue and proudly stand by them.
Doomerism here allows us to focus our efforts elsewhere, where it’d be more fruitful to strike back vs Trump.
You’re describing pragmatism, a solutions-oriented mindset.
I’m referring to left’s problem with edgy despair evangelists suffering from a deliberately propagated fascist contagion that must be recognized and treated rather than allowed to spread.
Why? Because it deactivates would-be activists (including, for example, voters who had the chance to prevent this fascist takeover). It is not harmless. It must be addressed.
It is not even that they “will” take the side of fascism. They already have at every step of the way.
We can sit thinking warm and cheery thoughts. Or we can think about what it will mean to survive for people who aren’t privileged enough to be a cishet white guy without any history of giving a shit about other human beings.