Let’s say, for the sake of argument, California eliminates all Republican seats and Texas eliminates all Democratic seats… what would the new House look like?
Other blue states are threatening to follow California’s lead, though, New York being one of them. If New York alone follows suit, that’d be an additional -7R, +7D. But even without New York, similar threats from Illinois and Maryland would also tip the scales (-4R, +4D combined)
It would have to be New York or some equivalent. An additional shift of +/-7 would flip the house 215R to 216D, but that’s also assuming Texas and California successfuly eliminate all opposition.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, California eliminates all Republican seats and Texas eliminates all Democratic seats…
Texas will struggle to eliminate all Dem districts, simply because there are too many Dem voters. You’re looking at a 1.5M spread of voters between R and D in Texas relative to a 3.2M spread in California.
When a given district has roughly 600k people (of whom barely half reliably vote), it becomes incredibly difficult to crack the existing Dem population into subsets small enough to guarantee a 55/45 split for each Republican candidate. The only real alternative is to pack as many Dems into a single district as possible, in order to dilute the remainder. That’s why the current Texas map only promises to flip 5 seats and leave 7 remaining.
Even then, you’re playing a dangerous game - a la 2006, 2008, 2012, and 2018 - in which a vibe shift costs you dozens of seats very quickly. The Republicans in 2008, for instance, lost every single House Seat in New England.
California can easily gerrymander their Republican minority out of another five seats (maybe more with some clever math) because of the hard liberal swing the state has been on since the Bush Era.
Worth noting, midterm swings in the house almost always goes against the sitting president’s party by a lot. 2022 was a history low (-9). I think the expectation is for the swing to be much higher.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, California eliminates all Republican seats and Texas eliminates all Democratic seats… what would the new House look like?
Texas -12D, +12R out of 38 total. (+1 vacancy)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_representatives_from_Texas
California -9R, +9D out of 52 total.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_representatives_from_California
Net change? -3D, +3R.
House composition goes from 219R / 212D / 4 Vacant to 222R / 209D / 4 Vacant.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives
Newsom - Nice try, but no.
Edit TIL - there are fewer Republican reps in California than there are Democratic reps in Texas!
Other blue states are threatening to follow California’s lead, though, New York being one of them. If New York alone follows suit, that’d be an additional -7R, +7D. But even without New York, similar threats from Illinois and Maryland would also tip the scales (-4R, +4D combined)
It would have to be New York or some equivalent. An additional shift of +/-7 would flip the house 215R to 216D, but that’s also assuming Texas and California successfuly eliminate all opposition.
We may not like it, but the fact is, there are more red states than blue states. This is a competition that Blue states won’t win.
The red states are much more gerrymandered than the blue states. They have less room.
Texas will struggle to eliminate all Dem districts, simply because there are too many Dem voters. You’re looking at a 1.5M spread of voters between R and D in Texas relative to a 3.2M spread in California.
When a given district has roughly 600k people (of whom barely half reliably vote), it becomes incredibly difficult to crack the existing Dem population into subsets small enough to guarantee a 55/45 split for each Republican candidate. The only real alternative is to pack as many Dems into a single district as possible, in order to dilute the remainder. That’s why the current Texas map only promises to flip 5 seats and leave 7 remaining.
Even then, you’re playing a dangerous game - a la 2006, 2008, 2012, and 2018 - in which a vibe shift costs you dozens of seats very quickly. The Republicans in 2008, for instance, lost every single House Seat in New England.
California can easily gerrymander their Republican minority out of another five seats (maybe more with some clever math) because of the hard liberal swing the state has been on since the Bush Era.
So… When are we going to stop pretending america is a democracy?
Probably not before an obviously sham election happens or not being a registered Republican is functionally outlawed
Registered Republican here. I’ve voted blue pretty much across the board since 2002, though.
“Registered Nazi party member here. I’m not really on board with this whole Hitler thing, though.”
Worth noting, midterm swings in the house almost always goes against the sitting president’s party by a lot. 2022 was a history low (-9). I think the expectation is for the swing to be much higher.
https://history.house.gov/Institution/Majority-Changes/Majority-Changes/
Edit: better link
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections
Good thing other states are looking to follow Newsom’s lead.